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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This is a market-implied contract quote from polymarket, not a certified probability, forecast, or official result.

Latest quote

85.3%

Change (observed window)

+69.9 pp

Observations

120

Close time

2028-11-08T04:59:00.000Z

Price history

Each point is a recorded quote observation. Percentage points, latest 120 observations shown.

Price history for Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?100%50%0%2026-10-17 01:20: 15% — display, vol 27987888.459122026-10-17 01:20: 85% — display, vol 27987888.459122026-10-17 01:40: 15% — display, vol 27987888.459119992026-10-17 01:40: 85% — display, vol 27987888.459119992026-10-17 02:00: 15% — display, vol 27987888.459119992026-10-17 02:00: 85% — display, vol 27987888.459119992026-10-17 02:20: 15% — display, vol 27987888.4591199942026-10-17 02:20: 85% — display, vol 27987888.4591199942026-10-17 02:40: 15% — display, vol 27987888.4591199982026-10-17 02:40: 85% — display, vol 27987888.4591199982026-10-17 03:00: 15% — display, vol 27987888.4591199982026-10-17 03:00: 85% — display, vol 27987888.4591199982026-10-17 03:20: 15% — display, vol 27987888.4591199982026-10-17 03:20: 85% — display, vol 27987888.4591199982026-10-17 03:40: 15% — display, vol 27987973.8687979732026-10-17 03:40: 85% — display, vol 27987973.8687979732026-10-17 04:00: 15% — display, vol 27987973.8687979652026-10-17 04:00: 85% — display, vol 27987973.8687979652026-10-17 04:21: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187982026-10-17 04:21: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187982026-10-17 04:40: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187982026-10-17 04:40: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187982026-10-17 05:00: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187982026-10-17 05:00: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187982026-10-17 05:21: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187980032026-10-17 05:21: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187980032026-10-17 05:40: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187980032026-10-17 05:40: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187980032026-10-17 06:00: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187979952026-10-17 06:00: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187979952026-10-17 06:20: 15% — display, vol 27988024.118797992026-10-17 06:20: 85% — display, vol 27988024.118797992026-10-17 06:40: 15% — display, vol 27988024.118797992026-10-17 06:40: 85% — display, vol 27988024.118797992026-10-17 07:00: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187982026-10-17 07:00: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187982026-10-17 07:20: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187980032026-10-17 07:20: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187980032026-10-17 07:40: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187979842026-10-17 07:40: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187979842026-10-17 08:00: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187982026-10-17 08:00: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187982026-10-17 08:20: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187979882026-10-17 08:20: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187979882026-10-17 08:40: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187979882026-10-17 08:40: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187979882026-10-17 09:00: 15% — display, vol 27988024.118797992026-10-17 09:00: 85% — display, vol 27988024.118797992026-10-17 09:20: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187979952026-10-17 09:20: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187979952026-10-17 09:40: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187980032026-10-17 09:40: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187980032026-10-17 10:00: 15% — display, vol 27988024.118797992026-10-17 10:00: 85% — display, vol 27988024.118797992026-10-17 10:21: 15% — display, vol 27988024.118797992026-10-17 10:21: 85% — display, vol 27988024.118797992026-10-17 10:40: 15% — display, vol 27988024.1187979882026-10-17 10:40: 85% — display, vol 27988024.1187979882026-10-17 11:00: 15% — display, vol 27988024.118797982026-10-17 11:00: 85% — display, vol 27988024.118797982026-10-17 11:20: 15% — display, vol 27988065.3387979942026-10-17 11:20: 85% — display, vol 27988065.3387979942026-10-17 11:40: 15% — display, vol 27988065.3387979942026-10-17 11:40: 85% — display, vol 27988065.3387979942026-10-17 12:00: 15% — display, vol 27988065.3387979872026-10-17 12:00: 85% — display, vol 27988065.3387979872026-10-17 12:20: 15% — display, vol 27988065.3387979942026-10-17 12:20: 85% — display, vol 27988065.3387979942026-10-17 12:40: 15% — display, vol 27988131.3787979932026-10-17 12:40: 85% — display, vol 27988131.3787979932026-10-17 13:00: 15% — display, vol 27988148.3587982026-10-17 13:00: 85% — display, vol 27988148.3587982026-10-17 13:20: 15% — display, vol 27988148.358798012026-10-17 13:20: 85% — display, vol 27988148.358798012026-10-17 13:40: 15% — display, vol 27988524.9304909782026-10-17 13:40: 85% — display, vol 27988524.9304909782026-10-17 14:00: 15% — display, vol 27988524.9304910082026-10-17 14:00: 85% — display, vol 27988524.9304910082026-10-17 14:20: 15% — display, vol 27988524.9304909932026-10-17 14:20: 85% — display, vol 27988524.9304909932026-10-17 14:40: 15% — display, vol 27988555.9304909972026-10-17 14:40: 85% — display, vol 27988555.9304909972026-10-17 15:00: 15% — display, vol 27988643.1589129942026-10-17 15:00: 85% — display, vol 27988643.1589129942026-10-17 15:20: 15% — display, vol 27988683.8189129942026-10-17 15:20: 85% — display, vol 27988683.8189129942026-10-17 15:40: 15% — display, vol 27988683.8189129942026-10-17 15:40: 85% — display, vol 27988683.8189129942026-10-17 16:00: 14% — display, vol 27988683.8189129982026-10-17 16:00: 86% — display, vol 27988683.8189129982026-10-17 16:20: 14% — display, vol 27989312.3589129972026-10-17 16:20: 86% — display, vol 27989312.3589129972026-10-17 16:40: 14% — display, vol 27989312.3589129862026-10-17 16:40: 86% — display, vol 27989312.3589129862026-10-17 17:00: 14% — display, vol 27989312.3589129862026-10-17 17:00: 86% — display, vol 27989312.3589129862026-10-17 17:20: 14% — display, vol 27989312.3589129822026-10-17 17:20: 86% — display, vol 27989312.3589129822026-10-17 17:40: 14% — display, vol 27989312.3589129822026-10-17 17:40: 86% — display, vol 27989312.3589129822026-10-17 18:00: 14% — display, vol 27989312.3589129822026-10-17 18:00: 86% — display, vol 27989312.3589129822026-10-17 18:20: 14% — display, vol 27989371.9489129862026-10-17 18:20: 86% — display, vol 27989371.9489129862026-10-17 18:40: 14% — display, vol 27989448.8992679862026-10-17 18:40: 86% — display, vol 27989448.8992679862026-10-17 19:00: 14% — display, vol 27989525.8492679862026-10-17 19:00: 86% — display, vol 27989525.8492679862026-10-17 19:16: 14% — display, vol 27989525.849267942026-10-17 19:16: 86% — display, vol 27989525.849267942026-10-17 19:35: 15% — display, vol 27989525.8492679862026-10-17 19:35: 85% — display, vol 27989525.8492679862026-10-17 19:56: 15% — display, vol 27989525.849267992026-10-17 19:56: 85% — display, vol 27989525.849267992026-10-17 20:16: 15% — display, vol 27989525.8492679972026-10-17 20:16: 85% — display, vol 27989525.8492679972026-10-17 20:35: 15% — display, vol 27989747.849267992026-10-17 20:35: 85% — display, vol 27989747.849267992026-10-17 20:55: 15% — display, vol 27989747.8492679932026-10-17 20:55: 85% — display, vol 27989747.8492679932026-10-17 01:202026-10-17 20:55
Source: recorded provider quote snapshots. Missing/one-sided quotes are not interpolated.

Outcomes

Native outcome identifiers from the provider.

  • No—
  • Yes—

Contract terms

Settlement criteria as published by the provider.

Resolution source

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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